Workspace · nothing here is live · type notes under any block

Automatic Valuation Analysis · audience cut 1 of 4

The valuation analysis, re-cut for the buyer

What the report contains today, the tools we already own, and exactly what a buyer’s version adds on top. Nothing is taken away.

working out who you are…

Part A

What the valuation analysis has today

Eleven blocks, read straight off appraisal_auto.py and appraisal_upside.py on 31 July 2026. This is the spine every audience cut is built on.

Block 1

Section 1

The conclusion

The cover. One value, and the reasoning for it in plain words.

Section 1 · The conclusion

  • The concluded value, with the two approaches deliberately kept apart — never averaged into one mushy number
  • How many closed sales were analysed, and how many were adjusted and gridded
  • The cap rate is stated as MEASURED from closed income sales, not a rate we picked
  • A pointer to the land test at the end of Section 4, in case the building is the wrong lens entirely
  • Every figure carries a chip: VERIFIED (public record / signed transaction), DERIVED (our math), or CLAIMED (someone told us)

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 2

Section 2

What is being valued

The subject, pinned down before anybody argues about value.

Section 2 · What is being valued

  • Address, folio, and the county property-appraiser deep link
  • Unit count and unit mix — settled here once, so Section 8 can never contradict it
  • Living area, lot size, year built
  • Property class, and the county's own land-vs-building split

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 3

Section 3

The market, and the time adjustment it justifies

Measures the trend, then uses it to drag old sales forward to today.

Section 3 · The market, and the time adjustment

  • The measured trend rate per month for this submarket
  • Applied to every comparable over the months since that sale closed
  • Stated as a rate we measured, not a rate we assumed

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 4

Section 4 · Approach one

Sales comparison approach

What buyers have actually paid for property like this.

Section 4 · Sales comparison approach

  • The grid — subject against each sale, line by line, with each comp's ADDRESS and its PHOTOGRAPH
  • Why each addition and subtraction was made — every adjustment explained
  • Sales we looked at and did not use — and the reason each was rejected
  • On the market right now — ASKING prices, labelled as not evidence
  • The land test — is anybody buying the building, or only the dirt? (this is what caught the 4603 N Ocean teardown)

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 5

Section 5 · Approach two

Income approach

What the building earns, and what that earning is worth.

Not a numbered section · Income approach - REMOVED from the buyer cut

  • Step 1 — what units like this actually rent for, from signed leases
  • Step 2 — what it actually costs to own, with the assumptions behind every expense line printed
  • Step 3 — net operating income ÷ cap rate
  • Run your own numbers — a live what-if panel carrying the engine's own inputs and knob values, running the same solve the engine ran
  • Step 4 — if the unit is furnished, the short-term-rental stack is added

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 6

Section 6

The two answers, side by side

Reconciliation. The two approaches are weighed against each other, in the open.

Not a numbered section · Income approach - REMOVED from the buyer cut

  • Both indicated values printed together
  • What the distance between them means, said out loud
  • The conclusion, and which approach carried more weight and why

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 7

Section 7

What to pay, if you want a target return

Only appears when a required return was set. A different question from value.

Not a numbered section · What to pay for a target return - REMOVED from the buyer cut

  • The same net operating income built line by line in Section 5 — not a second estimate — divided by OUR required return instead of the market's
  • Printed against market value so the gap is visible
  • Try a different required return — a live panel
  • Hard rule: this number never touches the cover. Value is the market's answer; this is ours.

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 8

Section 8

The upside, the downside, and what is possible

Everything that could change the deal — sitting AFTER the conclusion, moving nothing in it.

Section 10 · The upside, the downside, and what is allowed here

  • Rent burden — what the neighbourhood earns against what it is asked to pay
  • Zoning — what the land is allowed to become
  • Air rights — the buildable envelope
  • What else could be done here
  • The tax bill — the seller's, and then yours
  • Insurance — the line most likely to move the return
  • Permits — what has actually been done to this building
  • Who you are buying from
  • What is happening around it
  • Public money committed around it
  • Hard rule: an entitlement nobody has applied for is not worth money today. Pricing one in is how a valuation analysis becomes a sales brochure.

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 9

Section 9

The record around the building

The Deal Dossier, folded in. What the public record says about this parcel.

Section 11 · The record around the building

  • Flood — the zone, the BFE, and what it forces on a financed buyer
  • Wind — the line Florida actually prices
  • How old the building really is (effective year built, not the roll year)
  • What is filed against it today, with links to the county notices
  • How motivated the seller looks
  • What money costs this week — live 30-year rate
  • Where the county around it is going — income, jobs, permits, IRS migration
  • What you would be bidding against — competing supply, asking prices only, never used as comps, advertised cap tagged CLAIMED
  • The nearest public schools

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 10

Section 10

Assumptions, limits, and what we could not check

The honest edges of the document.

Section 13 · Assumptions, limits, and what we could not verify

  • Every assumption the report leaned on
  • Where we do not hold the evidence, it says so in that spot instead of filling the hole with a default
  • Specifically not checked — and each one is orderable

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 11

Appendix

The data behind every number

The citation spine, from data_sources.py.

Section 14 · The data behind every number

  • Where every number came from: publisher, download URL, our tables, the loader, live last-refreshed date, and the coverage gap
  • MLS number and county-property-appraiser deep link for the subject and for every comparable
  • The data behind every count printed in the report

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 12

Already in the code

The audience switch that exists

Not a numbered section · What this report is for

  • The report already has an audience switch — PROFILES in appraisal_auto.py. It holds four today: client / investor, internal (our own desk), lender, and seller. Each one sets the eyebrow, the stated purpose, the target return, and — the real one — rent_pctile, where in the range of signed leases the report reads rent from. A lender and a seller are shown the strong end (0.75). A client and our own desk are shown the middle (0.50). There is no buyer profile. That is the first thing this plan adds.

Tools for this section 1

  • Report profile engine — PROFILES['buyer'] in appraisal_auto.py

Part B

The tools we already own that a buyer needs

Every one of these is built and live. None of them is wired into the valuation analysis yet. Grouped by the question a buyer is actually asking.

Am I overpaying?

Cave ForecastWhat an active listing will really close at — predicted, not asked.
Ask PremiumHow much more this seller asks than a pro would have listed it.
Price DropsEvery cut, measured from the highest price ever asked.
Fell-off-and-came-backPulled from the market and quietly relisted — the days-on-market reset trick.
Best ValueEvery active listing ranked by lowest price per square foot.
What's My Home WorthThe instant value range off real closed prices.

What will it cost me?

Mortgage / Buying PowerThe whole monthly number — payment, taxes, insurance, the lot.
Rent CheckWhat the address should rent for, from signed leases nearby.
Old vs NewTwo buildings, same money in — what you actually pocket.
Solar / EV FeaturesReads the raw MLS blob for genuine solar and EV.
The four tax calculatorsThe path to zero tax, on your own money.

What is wrong with it?

Lien CheckWhat is actually recorded against the property.
Renovation RadarLive permit activity — mid-flip, stalled, just finished.
Deal DossierOwner, motivation, FEMA, filings, the whole record.
What The Listing SaysEvery text field on the listing, not just price.

What do I offer?

How Hard To PushThree numbers out of one address: open at, land near, walk away.
Negotiation ReportAn appraiser-style adjustment grid off recorded sold comps.
The Same Deal, Said Two WaysThe identical property pitched honestly, and pitched like a brochure.
Beat This DealOne ranked table of every deal that beats this benchmark.

Is this the right block?

Live Near What MattersPick the school, hospital, temple, gym or park you actually care about.
Neighborhood Prices & RentsWhat homes sell and rent for per square foot, block by block.
Who Is Moving InEvery county-to-county move we can trace, from IRS data.
Neighborhood ForecastSix forward-looking signals by county.
Best Month To Sell (or Sign)Which month actually pays — the seasonality board.
Explore an AreaEverything we know about a neighbourhood at once.

Part C

The buyer build

The buyer’s fear

“I’m going to overpay.”

Everything below exists to answer that one sentence. The current report answers it least of the four audiences — it is built to state a value, not to stop somebody paying too much.

Added to sections that already exist

Block 13

Before Section 1

A buyer profile in the code

One dictionary entry, and the whole report changes stance.

Not a numbered section · What this report is for

  • Add "buyer" to PROFILES in appraisal_auto.py
  • Eyebrow: Opinion of Value · Prepared For The Buyer
  • Purpose: estimate what the property is worth and what it should be bought for, so the buyer can make an offer with the evidence in front of them
  • rent_pctile = 0.25 — a buyer is underwritten at the CONSERVATIVE end of signed leases. A seller gets 0.75, a lender gets 0.75, our desk gets 0.50. A buyer should never be sold the best-case rent.
  • The full range is still printed beside it, exactly as the lender profile does — we shift the stance, we never hide the spread.

Tools for this section 1

  • Report profile engine — PROFILES['buyer'] - stance, purpose, eyebrow

Block 14

Section 1

The conclusion — add the overpay line

A buyer does not open a valuation analysis to learn the value. He opens it to learn whether he is about to overpay.

Section 1 · The conclusion

  • A single sentence at the top: asking is $X · the evidence says $Y · you are being asked to pay $Z over (or under)
  • Cave Forecast promoted to the cover: what this listing will actually close at. Asking is what they want; value is what it is worth; the forecast is what it will trade for. A buyer needs all three.
  • Ask Premium: how much more this particular seller asks than a pro would have listed it at — the first read on how much air is in the number
  • Keep everything already on the cover. This is a line added above it, not a replacement.

Tools for this section 2

  • Cave Forecast ng_broker_cave.html — what this listing will really close at
  • Ask Premium ng_premium.html — how much more this seller asks than a pro would

Block 15

Section 2

What is being valued — add what the listing admits

The remarks field is where the problems are confessed.

Section 2 · What is being valued

  • What The Listing Says run over every text field: as-is, cash only, tenant occupied, no interior access, seller never lived here, survey needed
  • What conveys and what does not
  • Solar / EV read from the raw MLS blob rather than the checkbox
  • Occupancy status — a tenant in place is a different purchase from a vacant one

Tools for this section 2

  • What The Listing Says ng_rent_signals.html — every text field, not just the remarks
  • Solar / EV Features ng_features.html — read from the raw MLS blob

Block 16

Section 3

The market — add the leverage read

The same trend, answered as the question a buyer is actually asking.

Section 3 · The market, and the time adjustment

  • Do I have leverage right now? — days on market, the share of active listings that have already cut, and months of supply for this bed count in this submarket
  • Best Month To Sign: the seasonality board, read from the buy side. The month that pays a seller is the month that costs a buyer.
  • Stated plainly: is the trend running for you or against you between now and closing?

Tools for this section 2

  • Brainiac's Corner ng_brainiacs_corner.html — the seasonality board - best month to BUY
  • Days on market / share that cut / months of supply engine — the leverage read

Block 17

Section 4

The sales grid — add the discount evidence

The grid already proves value. For a buyer it should also prove the going discount.

Section 4 · Sales comparison approach

  • A column on every comparable: what that buyer actually paid against what was asked, in percent. That is the empirical discount for this block.
  • The subject's own Price Drops history — the full cut record measured from the highest price ever asked, not from today's
  • Fell-off-and-came-back: was this listing withdrawn and relisted to reset days-on-market? A buyer is entitled to know the clock was restarted.
  • The land test stays exactly where it is. It is the single most valuable thing on the page for a buyer and it already works.

Tools for this section 3

  • Price Drops ng_price_drops.html — every cut from the highest price ever asked
  • Fell-off-and-came-back ng_price_drops.html — was the days-on-market clock reset
  • The land test engine — already built and working

Block 18

Section 5

Income — add the exit floor

Even a buyer who will live there needs to know what happens if life changes.

Section 5 · What it actually costs you - the exit floor

  • Reframed for an owner-occupier: if you had to leave, what does it rent for? That number is the floor under the decision.
  • Rent read at the conservative end (the 0.25 stance), with the full range beside it
  • Whether the rent would carry the payment, and by how much it misses if not
  • This is the only rent line on a buyer report, and it is a rent read — not the income approach. No NOI ÷ cap value is developed and no target-return price is printed. You settled that on 1 August: larger multifamily is an investor report and the income approach goes with it.

Tools for this section 1

  • Rent Check ng_rent_check.html — if you had to leave, what does it rent for

Block 19

Section 9

The record — promote the motivation read

It is already computed. For a buyer it belongs much earlier and much louder.

Section 7 · Your offer, and your walk-away - motivation promoted

  • How motivated the seller looks lifted out of the record section and given its own weight — it is the single input that sets how hard to push
  • Flood, wind and the 30-year rate stay, but each gets a “what this does to your monthly” line rather than only a description

Tools for this section 1

  • Deal Dossier ng_dossier.html — motivation lifted out of the record section

New sections, buyer only

Block 20

New section

What it actually costs you — month one to year five

The report currently prices the BUILDING. A buyer is buying a monthly payment.

Section 5 · What it actually costs you - month one to year five

  • Property tax after the reset, not the seller's protected bill. The single most common nasty surprise in Florida — a buyer inherits a market-value assessment, not the seller's Save Our Homes cap.
  • Homestead and portability, if the buyer qualifies
  • Insurance built from the real drivers we already read: wind mitigation, roof age, flood zone and BFE — not a placeholder percentage
  • HOA dues, and open or pending special assessments
  • Total monthly at three down-payment levels, against this week's live 30-year rate (already in the report from FRED)
  • Year one, year three, year five — because taxes and insurance are the lines that move

Tools for this section 4

  • Mortgage / Buying Power /mortgage — the whole monthly number
  • Tax after the reset engine — re_parcels + county millage, not the seller's bill
  • Insurance drivers engine — wind mitigation, roof age, flood zone, BFE
  • Live 30-year rate engine — FRED, already on the report

Block 21

New section

What is wrong with it

The condition and risk file. An appraiser who only tells you the value has told you half of it.

Section 6 · What is wrong with it

  • Open and expired permits — work you inherit, and the cost of closing it out
  • Liens, code violations and open cases from the recorded file
  • Effective year built against the roll year — how old it really is
  • Florida 40-year (and 25-year coastal) recertification exposure, and when it lands
  • The inspection shopping list: Section 10 already prints what we could not check and notes each one is orderable. For a buyer that list gets promoted into an actionable checklist with what each inspection costs and what it rules out.
  • Rule kept: where we hold no evidence the report says so. We never fill a hole with a default.

Tools for this section 4

  • Lien Check ng_lien_check.html — what is recorded against it
  • Renovation Radar ng_renovation_radar.html — live permit activity
  • Deal Dossier ng_dossier.html — condition, age risk, the record
  • Permits + code cases + recertification clock engine

Block 22

New section

Your offer, and your walk-away

The section that turns a valuation into a decision.

Section 7 · Your offer, and your walk-away

  • How Hard To Push, printed as three numbers: where to open, where the land alone supports, where to walk
  • The Negotiation Report — the appraiser-style adjustment grid off recorded sold comps, formatted to be handed to the listing agent
  • The seller's motivation read (promoted from Section 9) sitting next to it, because that is what sets the size of the ask
  • The Same Deal, Said Two Ways — the identical property written honestly and written like a brochure, so the buyer can recognise the spin he is about to be shown
  • An explicit walk-away price, stated as a number, with the reason

Tools for this section 4

  • How Hard To Push ng_push.html — open at / land supports / walk away
  • Negotiation Report ng_negotiate.html — the grid to hand the listing agent
  • The Same Deal, Said Two Ways /the-flip — honest version beside the brochure
  • Seller motivation ng_dossier.html — sets the size of the ask

Block 23

New section

Is this the right block?

Value is location, and a buyer's location is personal — not a census average.

Section 8 · Is this the right block?

  • Live Near What Matters: the buyer names the school, hospital, temple, gym or park, and the report measures the distance to his list
  • Nearest public schools with ratings (already present — gets expanded)
  • Prices and rents per square foot, block by block, so he can see whether he is buying the good side of the street
  • Who Is Moving In and the neighbourhood forecast — is this block filling or emptying
  • Flood and evacuation zone, in the terms a family asks about them

Tools for this section 5

  • Live Near What Matters /points-of-interest — distance to THEIR list
  • Neighborhood Prices & Rents /prices — block by block, per square foot
  • Who Is Moving In ng_migration_map.html — filling or emptying
  • Neighborhood Forecast ng_forecast.html — six forward signals
  • Schools, flood and evacuation zone engine

Block 24

New section

Better buys than this one

The honesty section. A valuation analysis that will not tell a buyer to walk away is a sales document.

Section 9 · Better buys than this one

  • Best Value: the same area, ranked by price per square foot against our own concluded values — where this property actually sits in that ranking
  • Beat This Deal: a flat ranked table of everything currently beating this one
  • Old vs New: the same money into a newer building, and what you pocket either way
  • If nothing beats it, the section says so — and that is the strongest possible argument for the purchase
  • This is the section no competitor will copy, because no competitor is willing to print it.

Tools for this section 3

  • Best Value /best-value — the area ranked by price per square foot
  • Beat This Deal ng_beat.html — everything currently beating it
  • Old vs New ng_old_vs_new.html — same money into a newer building

Block 25

New section

What happens next

A buyer closes the report and has to do something.

Section 12 · What happens next

  • The offer, ready to send, with the evidence attached
  • The inspections to order, in priority order
  • The financing question: what this week's rate does to the monthly, and what a quarter point either way is worth
  • What to re-check before closing, and the date to re-check it
  • One link back to the live report so the numbers refresh rather than going stale in a PDF

Tools for this section 3

  • Offer letter, drafted to build — no tool exists yet
  • Order the inspections to build — no tool exists yet
  • Rate sensitivity engine — a quarter point either way

Block 26

The rule

The rule this whole plan runs on

  • Nothing is removed. Every one of the eleven blocks in Part A survives in the buyer cut, in the same order, with the same evidence.
  • The buyer version adds: one profile entry, six additions to existing sections, and six new sections.
  • The two hard rules of the existing engine are untouched: the two approaches stay apart and are never averaged, and the upside never moves the conclusion.
  • Seller, agent and investor cuts follow the same shape — same spine, different additions. Buyer first, because a buyer's fear is the one the current report answers least.

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

Block 27

The whole plan

Anything about the buyer cut as a whole

Use this box for the big note — scope, order of work, or a flat no.

Tools for this section

NO TOOLS. This block is written from evidence the report already holds — nothing has to be copied or wired for it.

loading notes…

Everything both of us wrote